Women's World Cup odds, predictions 2019: Betting lines, expert picks for USA vs. Sweden

 cbssports.com  06/19/2019 23:40:00   CBS Sports Staff

Team USA faces its first major test of the 2019 Women's World Cup when it takes on Sweden on Thursday. The Americans, ranked No. 1 in the world, decimated Thailand 13-0 and cruised past Chile 3-0 in their first two matches, while No. 9 Sweden handled the same two teams by a combined 7-1 score. Each country has already qualified for the knockout stage of the FIFA Women's World Cup 2019, but placement for the Round of 16 will be determined by this result. Kickoff from Stade Oceane in Le Havre is set for 3 p.m. ET. Oddsmakers list the USWNT as a -400 money line favorite (risk $400 to win $100), while Sweden is going off as the underdog at +1100 (risk $100 to return $1,100). The draw is +490 and the over-under for total goals scored is 2.5 in the current USA vs. Sweden odds. The United States has lost just once in the last two years, but it was at this stadium, a 3-1 defeat to France. Sweden has had more success against Team USA than just about any other country, so before you make any USA vs. Sweden picks, be sure to see the 2019 Women's World Cup predictions from European soccer expert David Sumpter.

Sumpter is an applied mathematician and author of "Soccermatics," a book that explains how math works inside the sport. Along with other experienced analysts, Sumpter developed the powerful Soccerbot model.

The Soccerbot reads current odds and all team performance data, calculates key metrics and predicts upcoming matches. In the three seasons since its inception, Soccerbot is up an incredible 2,000 percent on Premier League picks. That's right -- 2,000 percent.

And the model has crushed its 2019 Women's World Cup group stage picks, returning a healthy profit already to anyone following it. The model correctly predicted the stunning Japan-Argentina draw (+825) -- a more than 8-1 long shot -- and was all over Brazil beating Italy, Germany outlasting Spain, England topping Scotland and Australia's dramatic comeback win over Brazil.

Now, the model has its sights set on USA vs. Sweden. We can tell you it's leaning under, but its much stronger play is on the money line. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

The model knows the USWNT is on a roll. No team has scored against the Americans in six matches, and the squad has just one loss over the last two years.

The team is extraordinarily deep and well-rested, as only four players started both 2019 World Cup games so far. Alex Morgan scored five goals in the opener before sitting out against Chile. Carli Lloyd scored once against Thailand and twice against Chile. Lloyd, who four years ago had a hat trick in the finals against Japan, has now scored in six straight World Cup games.

The Swedes have a tough defense but may have a tough time keeping up -- they have 18 goals in their last 13 World Cup games (1.4),

But just because the Americans have crushed the competition doesn't mean they're the best value on the USA vs. Sweden money line.

Sweden has never won the World Cup, but it has advanced to the semifinals three times and was the runner-up in 2003. The Swedes have considerable experience, with six players having 100-plus international games and five with at least 10 goals.

The last time Sweden faced the USWNT was at the 2016 Olympics quarterfinals, a game Sweden won on penalty kicks en route to the silver medal. American goalkeeper Hope Solo famously called the Swedes "cowards" post-match for their defense-first strategy.

Sweden's defense is certainly the focal point, and it's backed by one of the world's top goalies, Hedvig Lindahl. She made a critical shootout save in the win over Team USA at the Olympics and registered two more against Brazil in the next round. This is her fifth World Cup.

So who wins Sweden vs. USA? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Sweden vs. USA money line you need to be all over Thursday, all from an expert who created a model that's returned a 2,000 percent profit on bookmakers' closing odds.

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