Which Democrats Are Leading the 2020 Presidential Race?

 nytimes.com  06/14/2019 09:20:25  3  Jasmine C. Lee, Annie Daniel, Rebecca Lieberman, Blacki Migliozzi and Alexander Burns

Democrats have the largest field of presidential candidates in American history, and a handful are already breaking out of the pack. To make sense of the race, The Times is using a few key measures to track how all 23 candidates are doing. Each week, we will bring you the latest data and political analysis to help keep track as the Democrats close in on a nominee for 2020.

Jump to: Overview Polls Campaign Money News Coverage

The first debates are at the end of June, but there are only 20 spots on stage. The Democratic National Committee is using polls and numbers of unique donors to determine who will get to debate. See who qualified, and how theyre doing in polls, fund-raising and news coverage.

National polls are a flawed tool for predicting elections. Thats even truer in a primary that will unfold in stages, with one or several states voting at a time. But the broad national picture is still important, offering a sense of which candidates are gaining support overall.

Candidate polling average

Individual polls shown on hover

Individual polls shown on tap

Latest National Polls

The New York Times polling averages use pollsters approved by the D.N.C. for debate inclusion requirements. Polls conducted more recently and polls with a larger sample size are given greater weight in computing the averages. Data is for registered voters or likely voters, depending on the poll. See the full list of D.N.C.-approved pollsters here.

Remember, political fortunes can shift rapidly in a national campaign.

On this date in previous election cycles ...

Primary Polling leader Eventual nominee?
2016 Democrats Hillary Clinton
2016 Republicans Jeb Bush
2012 Republicans Mitt Romney
2008 Democrats Hillary Clinton
2008 Republicans Rudy Giuliani
Source: RealClearPolitics

We are keeping an eye on state-level polling, too, especially in the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

Latest Polls in Early Voting States

Nev. 6/6  6/11 Monmouth Iowa 6/2  6/5 Des Moines Register/CNN N.H. 5/2  5/7 Monmouth
36 24 36
13 16 18
19 15 8
6 7 6
7 14 9
2 2 2
2 1 2
1 2 2
2 1 1
<1<> 0 1
1 1 <1<>
1 1 0
0 0 0
<1<> 1 0
John HickenlooperHickenlooper
<1<> 0 1
Kirsten GillibrandGillibrand
0 0 <1<>
0 1 0
Marianne WilliamsonWilliamson
1 0 <1<>
0 1 <1<>
0 0 0
<1<> 0 <1<>
<1<> 0 0
0 0 0
+ View all candidates

Presidential campaigns are expensive, and candidates ability to compete often depends on their prowess at collecting large sums of money. Candidates used to focus on courting a few thousand wealthy individuals; many now spend more time raising money in small increments from millions of people online.

These statistics show which candidates are inspiring financial enthusiasm, either from a cluster of deep-pocketed donors or from a larger army of supporters. We only get an occasional glimpse at these numbers, however, since candidates file fund-raising reports on a quarterly basis. See full fund-raising numbers here �

Contributions from small donors
Kirsten GillibrandGillibrand
John HickenlooperHickenlooper
Marianne WilliamsonWilliamson
+ View all candidates
Source: Federal Election Commission ·Candidates in the chart without donation numbers joined the race after the last financial disclosure reporting deadline. The next deadline is July 15. Small donors are those who have given $200 or less. Total money raised includes money transferred from previous political campaigns, as well as funds that candidates loaned to their own campaigns.

A candidates ability to make news and draw the attention of voters  and cameras  is a major asset in any campaign. This statistic tracks which candidates are breaking through on cable television, which helps drive perceptions of the race among highly engaged voters and the wider media.

Being talked about isnt always a good thing: It can also mean a candidate made a major mistake or confronted damaging information from his or her past.

Total Mentions in 2019

Kirsten GillibrandGillibrand
John HickenlooperHickenlooper
Marianne WilliamsonWilliamson
+ View all candidates
Source: Internet Archive's Television News Archive via The GDELT Project. ·Mentions are the number of 15-second clips in which a candidates full name is mentioned on any of the three cable news networks. A more detailed methodology can be found here.
June 26-27 First primary debates
July 30-31 Second primary debates
Feb. 3 Iowa caucuses
July 13-16 Democratic National Convention
Nov. 3 Election Day

Sources: Polling data from ABC News/Washington Post; Ipsos/Reuters; Monmouth University; Quinnipiac University; Fox News; University of New Hampshire; CNN/SRSS; Des Moines Register/CNN. Historical primary polling data from RealClearPolitics. Campaign finance data from Federal Election Commission. News media mentions data from Internet Archive's Television News Archive via The GDELT Project.

Additional reporting contributed by Rachel Shorey.

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