Oddsmakers, computers weigh in on National Championship game

 247sports.com  04/08/2019 20:54:44 

It all comes to down to tonight in Minneapolis.  The Virginia Cavaliers and Texas Tech Red Raiders are set to tip off at 9:20 p.m. for the NCAA Men’s Basketball National Championship.

According to the Westgate Las Vegas Super Book, the point spread remains UVA as a one-point favorite, although the over-under for tonight’s game has dropped two-points since opening to 118 total points scored in the game.

According to the ESPN Basketball Power Index, the Wahoos have a 69.8-percent win probability with a predicted winning point differential of 4.6 points.

KenPom has a different take on the contest, giving UVA a win probability of 58-percent and a predicted final score of UVA 61, Texas Tech 58.

Below are the game notes courtesy of VirginiaSports.com:

FOR OPENERS

  • Virginia (34-3) is making its first NCAA national championship game appearance and seeks its first title.
  • The Cavaliers meet the Red Raiders for the first time.
  • UVA has amassed a school-record 34 wins and has won 30 or more games for the fourth time under three-time National Coach of the Year Tony Bennett and fifth time in school history.

UVA ALL-TIME IN THE NCAA TOURNAMENT

  • UVA is 34-22 all-time in 23 NCAA Tournament appearances.
  • UVA is 2-2 all-time in the NCAA Final Four.
  • UVA is 17-6 as a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
  • UVA meets a No. 3 seed for the first time in the NCAA Tournament.
  • Virginia head coach Tony Bennett is 15-8 in nine NCAA tournaments, including a 12-6 record at UVA.
  • The Cavaliers have reached the NCAA Tournament a school-best six consecutive seasons.

A WIN VS. TEXAS TECH WOULD:

  • Give UVA its first national championship in men’s basketball.
  • Extend UVA’s school record in wins to 35.
  • Give UVA a 35-22 all-time record in the NCAA Tournament.
  • Extend UVA’s school record of ranked wins to 11.
  • Give UVA an 18-6 record as a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
  • Give UVA a 1-0 record vs. Texas Tech.
  • Give UVA a 16-18 record against current Big 12 foes, including a 5-0 mark in the NCAA Tournament.
  • Give UVA a six-game winning streak.
  • Give Tony Bennett his first NCAA national championship.

ALL-TIME VS. BIG 12 CONFERENCE OPPONENTS

  • Virginia meets its second Big 12 opponent of the 2019 NCAA Tournament after defeating Oklahoma 62-51 in the second round on March 23.
  • UVA is 15-18 all-time against current Big 12 Conference members (9-10 vs. West Virginia, 3-1 vs. Oklahoma, 2-2 vs. Iowa State, 1-2 vs. Kansas, 0-1 vs. Baylor, 0-1 vs. Oklahoma State and 0-1 vs. TCU.
  • The Cavaliers are 4-0 all-time against current Big 12 foes in the NCAA Tournament (1-0 vs. Iowa State, 1-0 vs. Kansas, 1-0 vs. Oklahoma).

COMMON OPPONENTS 

  • Virginia and Texas Tech share two common opponents from the 2018-19 season – Duke and Oklahoma.
  • UVA posted a 1-2 mark against the common opponents, defeating Oklahoma (63-51) and dropping a pair of games to Duke (72-70 and 81-71).
  • Texas Tech was 2-1 with a pair of wins against Oklahoma (66-59 and 66-54) and a loss to Duke (69-58).

LAST TIME OUT

  • Kyle Guy’s three free throws with 0.6 seconds left lifted No. 1 seed Virginia to a 63-62 win over No. 5 seed Auburn in an NCAA Final Four national semifinal on Saturday, April 6.
  • Guy finished with 15 points and Ty Jerome tallied 21 points and matched a career high with nine rebounds in the win.
  • De’Andre Hunter added 14 points and five rebounds and Mamadi Diakite had a career-high five blocked shots.
  • UVA’s nine blocked shots established a season-high and new record in 56 games in the NCAA Tournament.
  • Virginia trailed 31-28 at the half, but went on an 8-0 run and held Auburn scoreless for the first 5:42 of the second half.
  • The Cavaliers gained a 57-47 lead, but Auburn answered with a 14-0 run before Guy drilled a 3-pointer along with his game-winning free throws.
  • Samir Doughty led Auburn with 13 points.

UVA IN KEN POM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

  • As of April 7, UVA ranks No. 1 in the KenPom.com overall ratings and No. 3 in adjusted offense and No. 5 in adjusted defense efficiency, respectively.
  • UVA is shooting 47.4 percent (second best in Bennett era), 39.3 percent from 3-point range (best in school history) and 73.9 percent from the free throw line.

BENNETT IN THE NCAA TOURNAMENT

  • Virginia head coach Tony Bennett is 15-8 all-time in nine NCAA tournament appearances.
  • Bennett owns a 12-6 record in seven appearances at UVA (2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019), highlighted by this season’s trip to the NCAA Final Four.
  • He went 3-2 during two trips at Washington State and led WSU to the NCAA Sweet 16 in 2008.

UVA IN THE NATIONAL STATISTICAL RANKINGS

  • As of April 7, UVA ranks first nationally in scoring defense (55.5 ppg), turnovers per game (8.9) and winning percentage (91.9%), third in scoring margin (15.5), fourth in 3-point field goal percentage defense (28.7%), fifth in field goal percentage defense (38.4%) and assist-to-turnover ratio (1.60), sixth in personal fouls per game (14.2) and eighth in 3-point field goal percentage (38.3%).

UVA VS. RANKED OPPONENTS

  • UVA is 41-34 against ranked opponents in the Tony Bennett era, including a 10-3 mark in 2018-19.
  • UVA’s 10 ranked wins are a school record.
  • The Cavaliers have posted an ACC record five ranked wins on the road, which is also tied with UConn (1998-99) for the most all-time in poll history since 1948-49.
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