NBA Playoffs 2019: Warriors vs. Rockets odds, picks, Game 6 predictions from proven model on 85-60 roll

 cbssports.com  05/10/2019 22:10:00   CBS Sports Staff

The short-handed Golden State Warriors will attempt to close out the Western Conference semifinals Friday night when they travel to meet the Houston Rockets. Game 6 from the Toyota Center is set to tip at 9 p.m. ET. The Warriors hold a 3-2 lead in the best-of-seven series after they managed a 104-99 home victory Wednesday night in Game 5. But for the rest of the series they will be without star Kevin Durant, who left in the third quarter with a calf strain. Houston is unbeaten at home in the postseason but lost to the Warriors twice at the Toyota Center in last season's Western Conference finals. Houston is a seven-point sportsbook favorite, up from an opener of -6 in most markets, and the over-under for total points scored is 214.5 in the latest Warriors vs. Rockets odds. Before you make any Warriors vs. Rockets picks, listen to what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 30 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling record on its top-rated picks, returning more than $3,000 in profit to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA money line picks, entering Week 30 on a strong 85-60 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has locked in on Game 6 of Warriors vs. Rockets. We can tell you it's leaning over, but it's also generated an against the spread pick that hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that one at SportsLine.

The model knows the Rockets will be determined to take advantage of an elimination game on their home floor as the teams experience a role reversal in their playoff rivalry. Last year, the Rockets held a 3-2 lead in the Western Conference finals, but played the last two games without injured point guard Chris Paul. They lost Game 7 at the Toyota Center and the Warriors went on to win their second straight NBA title.

Now, Houston is at full strength, while the Warriors carry on without Durant, who had been their most effective player in the series. He left Game 5 in the third quarter after scoring 22 points.

The Rockets won Games 3 and 4 with a similar trajectory as they controlled the action most of the way before holding off late Golden State rallies. They can also take confidence from overcoming a 20-point deficit in Game 5 to take the lead in the fourth quarter before eventually coming up short in a 104-99 defeat.

But just because Houston won't have to face Durant doesn't mean it'll cover the Rockets vs. Warriors spread on Friday.

The Warriors led the Western Conference with 27 road wins during the regular season, tied with the Milwaukee Bucks for the top mark in the NBA. They overcame two home losses in the first round against the Los Angeles Clippers by winning all three games at the Staples Center by an average of 18 points. Golden State also lost twice at home to the Rockets during the regular season, but won both matchups at the Toyota Center.

The Warriors remain the last team to beat the Rockets in Houston. On March 13, they pulled off a 106-104 victory as a 3.5-point underdog. Coincidentally, that win also came without the services of Durant, who missed the game with an ankle injury. Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry picked up the slack with 54 combined points and eight three-pointers.

Who wins Game 6 of Warriors vs. Rockets? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Warriors vs. Rockets spread you should be all over Friday, all from the model that's up more than $3,000 on NBA picks this season, and find out.

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