NBA Playoffs 2019: Warriors vs. Rockets odds, picks, Game 5 predictions from proven model on 85-60 roll

 cbssports.com  05/08/2019 23:18:00   CBS Sports Staff

Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors will look to bounce back in Game 5, as they host James Harden and a Houston Rockets squad that has handed them two straight losses. Those wins gave the Rockets life in the series, which now stands at 2-2. Houston may again be without Danuel House (toe), who is questionable after missing the past two games. For Golden State, Andre Iguodala (probable - knee) is the only new-listed injury. Tipoff for Game 5 is set for 10:30 p.m ET from Oracle Arena. Sportsbooks list Golden State as a six-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 220.5 in the latest Warriors vs. Rockets odds. Before you make any Warriors vs. Rockets picks, be sure to see the 2019 NBA Playoffs predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 30 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling record on its top-rated picks, returning more than $3,000 in profit to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA money line picks, entering Week 30 on a strong 85-60 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.

Now it has locked in on Warriors vs. Rockets. We can tell you it's leaning over, and it also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that strong pick at SportsLine.

The model is well aware that Houston has struggled on the road this season. The Rockets posted just a 22-19 record on the road during the regular season and are 1-3 on the road in the playoffs so far. Harden saw his scoring average drop from 37.4 points per game at home to 33.8 on the road, and he made almost two fewer trips to the free-throw line per game when playing on the road. He's averaged 29 points against the Warriors in the playoffs when playing at Golden State over the past two seasons, as opposed to 33 when playing them in Houston.

With the series returning to Golden State, and Curry seeming to have rediscovered his shooting stroke in Game 4, Houston could be in big trouble. Another big concern for the Rockets is the play of Clint Capela, who was supposed to be a clear top-three option for them. Whether it is the illness that has plagued him over the past couple weeks, or the defense of Draymond Green, Capela has been rendered completely ineffective in this matchup.

But just because Houston has struggled on the road this year, doesn't mean Golden State is a lock to cover the Warriors vs. Rockets spread in Game 5 of this 2019 NBA Playoffs series.

The model also knows that Golden State's poor shooting has a lot more to do with Houston's defense than the Warriors being off. The Warriors have taken more highly-contested shots than any team this round, while also getting the fewest wide-open shot attempts by a large margin. After getting 19 wide open shots per game during the regular season, Golden State has been limited to just 10 per game by Houston in this series.

In addition to playing lockdown defense, Houston's offense has done an effective job finding open 3-pointers. Harden and Eric Gordon have been firing at will from beyond the arc and combined to average 65 points over the past two games despite shooting just 35 percent from three.

So who wins Rockets vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations?Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Rockets vs. Warriors spread you need to jump on Wednesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.

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