NBA Playoffs 2019: Warriors vs. Rockets odds, picks, Game 5 predictions from model on 85-60 roll

 cbssports.com  05/08/2019 17:33:00   CBS Sports Staff

Kevin Durant and the Golden State Warriors host James Harden and the Houston Rocketson Wednesday, with tipoff from Oracle Arena set for 10:30 p.m. ET. Houston came storming back in Games 3 and 4, taking both on its home court to even the series at 2-2 in the 2019 NBA Playoffs. Steph Curry finally found his shot in Game 4, putting up 30 points on 48 percent shooting. However, teammate Klay Thompson continued to struggle, going just 5-of-15. For the series, Thompson is shooting just 39 percent from the floor and 31 percent from three. The Splash Brothers' struggles have made this a series that could swing either way in Wednesday's pivotal Game 5. Golden State is listed as a six-point home favorite, while the over-under for total points is 219.5 in the latest Warriors vs. Rockets odds. Before you make any Warriors vs. Rockets picks or predictions for the NBA Playoffs 2019, you'll want to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 30 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling record on its top-rated picks, returning more than $3,000 in profit to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA money line picks, entering Week 30 on a strong 85-60 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.

Now it has locked in on Warriors vs. Rockets. We can tell you it's leaning over, and it also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that strong pick at SportsLine.

The model knows the Warriors boast a 30-11 record at Oracle Arena and have beaten Houston in four of five home playoff games over the past two seasons with an average margin of victory of 15.4 points.

The Warriors also have Durant, who has been the best player in this series so far. Houston has no answer for KD, who is averaging 36 points and shooting 48 percent from three through four games. In six games over the past two weeks, Durant's scoring average sits at 40.

But just because Golden State has traditionally handled Houston with ease at home doesn't mean it will cover the Warriors vs. Rockets spread in Game 5 of the 2019 NBA Playoffs.

The model also knows that Golden State's poor shooting has a lot more to do with Houston's defense than the Warriors being off. The Warriors have taken more highly-contested shots than any team this round, while also getting the fewest wide-open shot attempts by a large margin. After getting 19 wide open shots per game during the regular season, Golden State has been limited to just 10 per game by Houston in this series.

In addition to playing lockdown defense, Houston's offense has done an effective job finding open 3-pointers. Harden and Eric Gordon have been firing at will from beyond the arc and combined to average 65 points over the past two games despite shooting just 35 percent from three.

So who wins Rockets vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations?Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Rockets vs. Warriors spread you need to jump on Wednesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.

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