NBA Playoffs 2019: Warriors vs. Blazers odds, picks, Game 1 predictions from proven model on 85-61 roll

 cbssports.com  05/14/2019 13:33:00   CBS Sports Staff

The Golden State Warriors open their fifth straight Western Conference Finals when they host the upset-minded Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday. Tipoff is at 9 p.m. ET from Oracle Arena. Golden State knocked off Houston in six games despite missing leading scorer Kevin Durant for part of Game 5 and all of Game 6. Durant will also sit out Tuesday night. Meanwhile, Portland advanced with a shocking Game 7 win in Denver on Sunday, 100-96, as CJ McCollum erupted for 37 points. This is the Blazers' first Western Conference Finals berth since 2000 and third postseason series versus the Warriors in the last four years. Golden State opened as an eight-point favorite, but is laying 7.5 in the latest Warriors vs. Blazers odds. The over-under for total points scored is 220.5, up two from the opener. Before you make any Trail Blazers vs. Warriors picks, check out what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered the conference finals of the 2019 NBA Playoffs with a sterling record on its top-rated picks, returning more than $3,000 in profit to anybody following them this season. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA money line picks, entering the conference finals on a strong 85-61 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has crunched the numbers for Trail Blazers vs. Warriors. We'll tell you it is leaning over, but it also has a spread pick that cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations. That pick is available only at SportsLine.

The model has factored in Stephen Curry's resurgence, which has helped compensate for the loss of Durant. In the last three games versus Houston, Curry poured in 88 total points and dished out 17 assists. Plus, Golden State will be highly confident given past playoff matchups with Portland. In the first round of the 2017 playoffs, the Warriors swept the Trail Blazers. In 2016, Golden State prevailed in five games.

This series features the NBA's top backcourts, but only one side -- Curry and Klay Thompson -- has a championship pedigree. And you can count on Golden State kicking things up a notch in this round of the 2019 NBA Playoffs. In their last 14 games in the conference finals, the Warriors have covered 10 times. Plus, Portland is just 1-5 against the spread when the line is +6 to +9 like it is on Tuesday.

But just because the Splash Brothers have regained their form doesn't mean Golden State covers the Warriors vs. Blazers spread in Game 1.

The Blazers bring their own dynamic backcourt duo ofDamian Lillard and CJ McCollum, and you can argue they've outplayed Curry and Thompson thus far in the NBA Playoffs 2019. McCollum was unstoppable on Sunday in Denver, shooting 17-of-29 for 37 points with nine rebounds in the 100-96 win. He's poured in at least 27 points in six playoff games already. Lillard is averaging 28.4 points in the postseason and has nailed 50 percent of his 3-point tries versus the Warriors this season.

Portland has covered five of the last seven meetings. In the most recent matchup, with Durant, Curry and Thompson all healthy, the Blazers rolled to a shocking 129-107 home win as two-point underdogs.

So who wins Blazers vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see the Game 1 Blazers vs. Warriors spread pick, all from an advanced computer model that's up over $3,000 on top-rated picks this season.

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