Mr Morrison staged a campaign blitz in Queensland to warn voters against Labor's tax revenue increases and contrast them with his promise of lower personal taxes, saying his government understood and celebrated the aspirations of Australians.
Mr Shorten vowed to offer a "consensus" government like that of Mr Hawke and pledged to act on climate change with a stable government that could end the "chaos" of the Liberal Party's leadership split.
The exclusive Ipsos analysis shows that Labor leads in Victoria by 53 to 47 per cent in two-party terms, highlighting Mr Shorten's gains in his home state since the last election.
The Ipsos findings, based on two rounds of telephone polling this month, confirm Labor has a stronger lead than seen in the 2016 election when it pulled ahead of the Coalition by 52 to 48 per cent in Victoria.
While Labor has an edge over the Coalition in NSW, the gain is small and within the margin of error for this analysis, confirming expectations on both campaign teams that the contest will be tight in key seats.
Labor is ahead of the Coalition by 51 to 49 per cent in two-party terms in NSW compared to the election result of approximately 50:50 three years ago.
The Ipsos survey also shows that Labor and the Coalition are neck-and-neck in Queensland, where each party has 50 per cent support in two-party terms.
The result highlights the danger to Mr Morrison in key Queensland seats, given the government had a powerful lead of 54 to 46 per cent over Labor across the state at the last federal election.
The Coalition has held its significant lead over Labor in Western Australia, where it is ahead by 53 to 47 per cent, but the result suggests a swing away from the government that puts several seats in play.
Voters in Western Australia favoured the Coalition by almost 55 to 45 per cent at the last election.
The results confirm Labor's nationwide lead over the Coalition of 51 to 49 per cent in two-party terms, but the state-by-state findings offer an important guide to the election contest.
Applied evenly across every seat in each state, the Ipsos results suggest Labor could gain 82 seats on Saturday night.
Labor held 69 seats in the last Parliament and has more than ten seats in its sights, including the Victorian electorates of Dunkley, Corangamite, Chisholm and La Trobe.
It is also hoping to gain Gilmore and Reid in NSW and the three Western Australian seats of Hasluck, Swan and Stirling.
Mr Shorten has not campaigned in Queensland this week but Labor has targeted seats such as Forde and Flynn while also defending Herbert.
In a sign of Coalition concern over its position in Queensland, Mr Morrison campaigned on Friday in two seats held by the government, Flynn and Leichhardt, after visiting Herbert.
The Coalition has pinned its hopes on holding ground in each state while snaring the Tasmanian seats of Bass and Braddon as well as winning Lindsay in western Sydney.
The Ipsos analysis is based on responses from 2822 voters in two polls conducted in the three days to May 4 and the three days to May 15, excluding earlier surveys to measure voter opinion in the final weeks of the election campaign.
The analysis allocates preferences in line with preference flows at the last election.
When voters were asked to state which major party would secure their preferences, the result in Queensland was the same but the outcome in NSW favoured Mr Shorten, with 53 per cent for Labor and 47 per cent for the Coalition.
The outcome was tighter in Victoria when stated preferences are applied, with Labor ahead by only 52 to 48 per cent the same result in two-party terms as the last election.
Mr Morrison and Mr Shorten are evenly matched as preferred prime minister in South Australia and the Northern Territory, where both were supported by 43 per cent of voters.
Mr Morrison is the preferred leader in every other state, with a lead of 50 to 39 per cent in Western Australia and 47 to 36 per cent in Queensland.
In Victoria, however, Mr Morrison's lead was only 44 to 42 per cent. In NSW it was 45 to 41 per cent.
The state-by-state analysis revealed a weak primary vote for Labor in Western Australia and Queensland, where this core support was 29 per cent and 30 per cent respectively.
Labor calculates it can claim government without wildcard wins in safe Liberal seats like Dickson, Higgins and Menzies.
Even so, it believes it has a chance of unseating Peter Dutton in Dickson and it considers Tony Abbott to be very close to losing Warringah to independent candidate Zali Steggall.
In the eastern Sydney seat of Wentworth, however, the Labor analysis is that independent Kerryn Phelps is at risk of losing to Liberal candidate Dave Sharma.