The Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season kicked off Wednesday, two weeks and two days ahead of the official start of the Atlantics, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) have been called into action early to monitor two disturbances one in the Atlantic and one in the Pacific. Neither disturbance is given�much chance of development, and neither poses a threat to the U.S. They could, however, impact the surf over the next week.
The NHC is keeping an eye on a disorganized mess of clouds and storms off the coast of Southern Mexico and northern Central America. No development is expected over the weekend as this broad area of low pressure hangs offshore. The system may become a little better organized next week, though, given a slightly better chance of development (30%) going out five days. There is little expectation that a named storm will develop from this system; however, if it does�become better organized, shorter-period swell could join the mix for Central America and Southern Mexico.
This might be rather unwelcome, crashing the solid south swell party thats already en route. Trusted models also show this system lifting north next week, which brings the potential for undesirable winds anywhere from Salina Cruz to El Salvador. So whether or not this becomes a named system, there are some weather concerns to keep an eye on follow your Regional Forecast for the latest.
Over in the Atlantic, the NHC expects an area of low pressure to develop between Bermuda and the Bahamas by the start of next week. Theres no chance for development over the weekend, but there is a slim (30%) chance of development early to mid next week as the low lifts north or northeastward. As is expected over the Eastern Pacific, we dont anticipate a named storm to develop from this low-to-be. Assuming the area of low pressure even develops, theres potential for the system to enhance the trade swell and send a little extra bump to parts of the East Coast. Stay tuned to your Regional Forecast for updates.
The Atlantic season officially begins on June 1st, and the final rounds of Atlantic Hurricane Season predictions will be issued soon. Well update the pre-season numbers for the start, which hinge heavily on the state of El Nino. Typically, the Atlantic sees suppressed tropical activity during El Nino conditions, while the Eastern Pacific sees increased activity.
As it stands, theres a 70% chance El Nino will continue through the summer, and a 55-60% chance it will continue through fall.