2019 PGA Championship odds: Surprising picks, predictions from top-rated model that nailed Tiger Woods' deep run

 cbssports.com  05/13/2019 22:54:00   CBS Sports Staff

Last year at Bellerive Country Club in suburban St. Louis, Brooks Koepka won the PGA Championship after holding off a late charge from Tiger Woods. Keopka has owned the PGA Championship recently, scoring a combined 47-under in his last five appearances. We know now that last year's performance from Woods was a precursor for the 81-time PGA winner competing for majors once again, as he earned his fifth green jacket and 15th major last month at the Masters. Now, as part of a newly-condensed golf schedule, Woods, Koepka, and company will converge on the Bethpage Black Course in Farmingdale, N.Y. this week for the 2019 PGA Championship. There are 156 players in the 2019 PGA Championship field, all ready to battle this par-70, 7,459-yard behemoth starting at dawn on Thursday. Woods is now the 8-1 favorite in the latest 2019 PGA Championship odds, with Koepka and world No. 1 Dustin Johnson on his heels at 10-1. Woods has a previous major victory at this challenging venue, having won the 2002 U.S. Open at Bethpage Black. Before you make any 2019 PGA Championship picks, be sure to see what the proven computer model at SportsLine just locked in.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed four majors entering the weekend and was all over Woods' deep run in last year's PGA Championship as a 25-1 long shot. The model projected him as a top contender even though he hadn't cracked the top 10 at this major in almost a decade. Whereas oddsmakers faded Woods, SportsLine was all-in.

The model has been spot-on early in the 2018-19 season. It was high on champion Rory McIlroy at the Players Championship, projecting him as one of the top two contenders from the start. It also correctly predicted Brooks Koepka's (9-1) victory at the CJ Cup. Additionally, it correctly called Bryson DeChambeau's (9-1) seven-shot victory at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. Anyone who has followed the model is way up.

Now that the 2019 PGA Championship field is taking shape, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Jordan Spieth, one PGA Championship title away from a career grand slam, stumbles big-time and doesn't even crack the top 30 at Bethpage Black.

Spieth won the Masters and U.S. Open four years ago. The same year, he was the runner-up to Jason Day in the PGA Championship at the Straits Course in Wisconsin. He was named PGA's Rookie of the Year, Player of the Year, and FedEx Cup champion and was riding on top of the golf world.

Recently, however, it's been a struggle for Spieth. He has an Official World Golf Ranking that barely cracks the top 40 and has yet to record a top-20 finish in any PGA Tour event this season. In fact, the last time he made the top 10 in a PGA event was last July at the Open Championship, and that was a ninth-place finish. He hasn't won a PGA tournament since 2017 and was cut at the Players Championship, Sony Open, and Mayakoba Golf Classic already this season. Don't be fooled by Spieth's name recognition. He's a golfer to avoid this week at the PGA Championship 2019.

Another surprise: Bryson DeChambeau, a 25-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the PGA Championship 2019 title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

The 25-year-old is golf's mad scientist with his single-length clubs and one-plane swing. DeChambeau's unique, calculated approach to golf has paid dividends over the years. He began his 2018-19 PGA Tour season with a win at the Shriners Hospital for Children Open and also captured the Omega Dubai Desert Classic to give him five worldwide victories in the last calendar year.

Now, he's set his sights on winning his first major championship and there's no question he has the skills to contend. He boasts an Official World Golf Ranking of No. 8 and is sixth on tour in strokes gained off the tee at 0.743. Bethpage Black is a long, challenging course where you typically have to play to one side of the fairway to go at the flag. DeChambeau's combination of distance and accuracy should play well to that test and line him up to climb the 2019 PGA Championship leaderboard quickly.

Also, the model says five other golfers with 2019 PGA Championship odds of 18-1 or longer will make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.

So who will win the 2019 PGA Championship, and which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full 2019 PGA Championship projected leaderboard from the model that nailed the winners of four golf majors.

Tiger Woods 8-1 Dustin Johnson 10-1 Rory McIlroy 12-1 Brooks Koepka 10-1 Rickie Fowler 16-1Jon Rahm 18-1 Justin Rose 18-1 Francesco Molinari 20-1 Bryson DeChambeau 25-1Jason Day 25-1 Xander Schauffele 25-1Tommy Fleetwood 25-1 Jordan Spieth 30-1Tony Finau 30-1 Matt Kuchar 40-1 Patrick Reed 40-1 Hideki Matsuyama 40-1 Patrick Cantlay 40-1Paul Casey 50-1 Phil Mickelson 50-1Adam Scott 50-1 Sergio Garcia 60-1 Webb Simpson 60-1Louis Oosthuizen 60-1Bubba Watson 60-1Henrik Stenson 60-1Marc Leishman 60-1Gary Woodland 60-1

Ian Poulter 60-1

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