2019 PGA Championship odds: Surprising picks, best predictions from same model that nailed Tiger Woods' deep run

 cbssports.com  05/15/2019 15:50:00   CBS Sports Staff

The 2019 PGA Championship will provide spectators with star-studded groupings through the first two days of action, starting on Thursday. Tiger Woods (8-1), the betting favorite in the current 2019 PGA Championship odds, will play alongside defending champion Brooks Koepka (10-1) and Francesco Molinari (20-1), the reigning Open Championship winner. Woods and company will let it fly at 8:24 a.m. ET from the 10th tee. Meanwhile, Jordan Spieth (30-1), looking to become just the sixth golfer to complete a career Grand Slam, will be paired with world No. 1 Dustin Johnson (10-1) and Jon Rahm (18-1). The latest 2019 PGA Championship tee times show Spieth, Johnson, and Rahm heading to the first hole at 1:16 p.m. ET. Elsewhere, three former PGA Championship winners will compete side-by-side when Phil Mickelson (50-1), Rory McIlroy (12-1) and Jason Day (25-1) tee off at 1:38 p.m. ET. Play officially gets underway on Thursday morning at 6:45 a.m. ET from the Bethpage Black Course in Long Island. Before you lock in any predictions for the year's second major, you need to see the 2019 PGA Championship picks from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed four majors entering the weekend and was all over Woods' deep run in last year's PGA Championship as a 25-1 long shot. The model projected him as a top contender even though he hadn't cracked the top 10 at this major in almost a decade. Whereas oddsmakers faded Woods, SportsLine was all-in.

The model has been spot-on early in the 2018-19 season. It was high on champion Rory McIlroy at the Players Championship, projecting him as one of the top two contenders from the start. It also correctly predicted Brooks Koepka's (9-1) victory at the CJ Cup. Additionally, it correctly called Bryson DeChambeau's (9-1) seven-shot victory at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. Anyone who has followed the model is way up.

Now that the 2019 PGA Championship field is taking shape, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Rickie Fowler, one of the top Vegas favorites and the No. 10 player in the entire world, stumbles big-time and doesn't even crack the top 10.

Fowler is no stranger to being near the top of the leaderboard in majors. In fact, he's finished third or better in all four of them throughout his career. But winning them has been an entirely different story, as he enters the PGA Championship 2019 at Bethpage Black with a reputation as one of the best golfers on tour who hasn't won a major.

The model doesn't like his chances to break through this week either despite oddsmakers listing him as one of the top favorites. Fowler did win the Waste Management Phoenix Open earlier this year and had top-10 finishes at the Masters and Wells Fargo Championship recently, but also finished outside the top 15 in three of his last five events. Additionally, he's just 106th on tour in driving accuracy percentage at 61.69, which likely will put him in tough situations on an already challenging course. There are far better values in a loaded 2019 PGA Championship field, so Fowler is a golfer you'll want to steer clear of completely.

Another surprise: Tony Finau, a 30-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the PGA Championship 2019 title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

Finau continues to climb to the top of the leaderboard in majors and looks poised for a breakthrough win at age 29. He had three top-10 finishes in majors a season ago and tied for fifth last month at Augusta National. Finau finished 11-under at the Masters, just two strokes behind Woods, and beat out PGA staples like Fowler (-10), Bubba Watson (-8), and Phil Mickelson (-6).

Finau is currently the No. 15 player in the world and has had previous success in this tournament, finishing 10th in his first PGA Championship at Whistling Straits back in 2015. Finau ranks sixth on the PGA Tour in driving distance this season at 311.2 yards, which should be a huge advantage at a lengthy course that has plenty of second shots into elevated greens. Finau is also 10th among PGA pros with an average club head speed of 122.15 m.p.h., which will give him plenty of chances to shoot up the 2019 PGA Championship leaderboard quickly.

Also, the model says five other golfers with 2019 PGA Championship odds of 18-1 or longer will make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.

So who will win the 2019 PGA Championship, and which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full 2019 PGA Championship projected leaderboard from the model that nailed the winners of four golf majors.

Tiger Woods 8-1 Dustin Johnson 10-1 Rory McIlroy 12-1 Brooks Koepka 10-1 Rickie Fowler 16-1Jon Rahm 18-1 Justin Rose 18-1 Francesco Molinari 20-1 Bryson DeChambeau 25-1Jason Day 25-1 Xander Schauffele 25-1Tommy Fleetwood 25-1 Jordan Spieth 30-1Tony Finau 30-1 Matt Kuchar 40-1 Patrick Reed 40-1 Hideki Matsuyama 40-1 Patrick Cantlay 40-1Paul Casey 50-1 Phil Mickelson 50-1Adam Scott 50-1 Sergio Garcia 60-1 Webb Simpson 60-1Louis Oosthuizen 60-1Bubba Watson 60-1Henrik Stenson 60-1Marc Leishman 60-1Gary Woodland 60-1

Ian Poulter 60-1

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