2019 PGA Championship odds: Surprising picks, best predictions from model that nailed Tiger Woods' deep run

 cbssports.com  05/14/2019 23:09:00   CBS Sports Staff

Tiger Woods can make history yet again with a victory this week at the 2019 PGA Championship. Woods, a four-time PGA Championship winner, can join Jack Nicklaus and Walter Hagen as the only golfers to win this tournament five times. And Woods has a proven track record at Bethpage Black, the 2019 PGA Championship course. In fact, he is one of just three players in this week's 2019 PGA Championship field to have finished in the top 10 in both majors that have been held there. The 15-time major champion finished on top of the leaderboard at the 2002 U.S. Open and earned a sixth-place finish at the 2009 U.S. Open, both held at the same Long Island venue. The current 2019 PGA Championship odds list Woods as the Vegas favorite at 8-1, followed closely by defending champion Brooks Koepka (10-1) and world No. 1 Dustin Johnson (10-1). The latest 2019 PGA Championship weather is calling for partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the 60s for the first two rounds, with a chance of rain over the weekend. Before you make any predictions for this star-studded event, consult the 2019 PGA Championship picks from the proven model at SportsLine.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed four majors entering the weekend and was all over Woods' deep run in last year's PGA Championship as a 25-1 long shot. The model projected him as a top contender even though he hadn't cracked the top 10 at this major in almost a decade. Whereas oddsmakers faded Woods, SportsLine was all-in.

The model has been spot-on early in the 2018-19 season. It was high on champion Rory McIlroy at the Players Championship, projecting him as one of the top two contenders from the start. It also correctly predicted Brooks Koepka's (9-1) victory at the CJ Cup. Additionally, it correctly called Bryson DeChambeau's (9-1) seven-shot victory at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. Anyone who has followed the model is way up.

Now that the 2019 PGA Championship field is taking shape, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Rickie Fowler, one of the top Vegas favorites and the No. 10 player in the entire world, stumbles big-time and doesn't even crack the top 10.

Fowler is no stranger to being near the top of the leaderboard in majors. In fact, he's finished third or better in all four of them throughout his career. But winning them has been an entirely different story, as he enters the PGA Championship 2019 at Bethpage Black with a reputation as one of the best golfers on tour who hasn't won a major.

The model doesn't like his chances to break through this week either despite oddsmakers listing him as one of the top favorites. Fowler did win the Waste Management Phoenix Open earlier this year and had top-10 finishes at the Masters and Wells Fargo Championship recently, but also finished outside the top 15 in three of his last five events. Additionally, he's just 106th on tour in driving accuracy percentage at 61.69, which likely will put him in tough situations on an already challenging course. There are far better values in a loaded 2019 PGA Championship field, so Fowler is a golfer you'll want to steer clear of completely.

Another surprise: Xander Schauffele, a 25-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the PGA Championship 2019 title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

Owning an Official World Golf Ranking of No. 9, the 25-year-old comes to Bethpage Black playing extremely well after recording a second place run at the Masters last month. He's also finished on top of the leaderboard twice this season, winning the WGC-HSBC Champions and Sentry Tournament of Champions.

Schauffele's deep run at the Masters should come as no surprise. In fact, Schauffele has cracked the top 10 in three of his last four starts in major tournaments. His prolific ball-striking ability makes him a strong play this week at Bethpage Black, as he enters the PGA Championship 2019 ranked in the top 20 in holes per eagle (94.5), birdie average (4.48) and scoring average (70.031). He'll begin his climb up the 2019 PGA Championship leaderboard from the 10th tee on Thursday at 8:13 a.m. ET alongside Hideki Matsuyama and Alex Noren.

Also, the model says five other golfers with 2019 PGA Championship odds of 18-1 or longer will make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.

So who will win the 2019 PGA Championship, and which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full 2019 PGA Championship projected leaderboard from the model that nailed the winners of four golf majors.

Tiger Woods 8-1 Dustin Johnson 10-1 Rory McIlroy 12-1 Brooks Koepka 10-1 Rickie Fowler 16-1Jon Rahm 18-1 Justin Rose 18-1 Francesco Molinari 20-1 Bryson DeChambeau 25-1Jason Day 25-1 Xander Schauffele 25-1Tommy Fleetwood 25-1 Jordan Spieth 30-1Tony Finau 30-1 Matt Kuchar 40-1 Patrick Reed 40-1 Hideki Matsuyama 40-1 Patrick Cantlay 40-1Paul Casey 50-1 Phil Mickelson 50-1Adam Scott 50-1 Sergio Garcia 60-1 Webb Simpson 60-1Louis Oosthuizen 60-1Bubba Watson 60-1Henrik Stenson 60-1Marc Leishman 60-1Gary Woodland 60-1

Ian Poulter 60-1

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