2019 PGA Championship odds: Surprising picks, best predictions from advanced model that nailed Tiger Woods' deep run

 cbssports.com  05/16/2019 03:45:08   CBS Sports Staff

Brooks Koepka won two majors in 2018, the PGA Championship and U.S. Open, but you'd have to go back to 1975 and Jack Nicklaus to find the last time a golfer won the Masters and PGA Championship in the same year. That's what Tiger Woods will attempt to accomplish beginning Thursday morning at Bethpage Black in Farmington, N.Y. as the 2019 PGA Championship gets underway. He'll have to contend with Koepka, however, who has shot a combined 47-under the last five years at this major and is only the fifth player to win the U.S. Open and PGA Championship in the same year. Woods has remained cemented on top of the 2019 PGA Championship odds board, currently at 8-1. Justin Thomas withdrawing earlier in the week with a wrist injury contributed to movement near the top of the PGA Championship 2019 odds board, with Koepka moving from 14-1 to 10-1 and Rickie Fowler going from 18-1 to 16-1 as they attempt to run down Woods. Before finalizing any 2019 PGA Championship picks of your own, listen to the PGA Tour predictions from the proven golf simulation at SportsLine.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed four majors entering the weekend and was all over Woods' deep run in last year's PGA Championship as a 25-1 long shot. The model projected him as a top contender even though he hadn't cracked the top 10 at this major in almost a decade. Whereas oddsmakers faded Woods, SportsLine was all-in.

The model has been spot-on early in the 2018-19 season. It was high on champion Rory McIlroy at the Players Championship, projecting him as one of the top two contenders from the start. It also correctly predicted Brooks Koepka's (9-1) victory at the CJ Cup. Additionally, it correctly called Bryson DeChambeau's (9-1) seven-shot victory at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. Anyone who has followed the model is way up.

Now that the 2019 PGA Championship field is taking shape, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Rickie Fowler, one of the top Vegas favorites and the No. 10 player in the entire world, stumbles big-time and doesn't even crack the top 10.

Fowler is no stranger to being near the top of the leaderboard in majors. In fact, he's finished third or better in all four of them throughout his career. But winning them has been an entirely different story, as he enters the PGA Championship 2019 at Bethpage Black with a reputation as one of the best golfers on tour who hasn't won a major.

The model doesn't like his chances to break through this week either despite oddsmakers listing him as one of the top favorites. Fowler did win the Waste Management Phoenix Open earlier this year and had top-10 finishes at the Masters and Wells Fargo Championship recently, but also finished outside the top 15 in three of his last five events. Additionally, he's just 106th on tour in driving accuracy percentage at 61.69, which likely will put him in tough situations on an already challenging course. There are far better values in a loaded 2019 PGA Championship field, so Fowler is a golfer you'll want to steer clear of completely.

Another surprise: Justin Rose, an 18-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the PGA Championship 2019 title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

Rose is no stranger to success in majors. He's finished third or better in all four of them and won the 2013 U.S. Open at Merion Golf Club. His odds are longer this time around after he had a surprising missed cut at the Masters, but don't let that performance deceive you. Rose has an Official World Golf Ranking of No. 2, was recently at No. 1, and has been extremely consistent outside that one flop at Augusta.

His 2018-19 PGA Tour campaign has included four top-five finishes, including a win at the Farmers Insurance Open. Additionally, he made the top 10 at the Players Championship and WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. Even though he hits just 65.38 percent of greens in regulation, he's still top-10 in birdie average (4.62), scoring average (69.80) and sand-save percentage (65.12), so his precision around the green gives him the tools needed to climb the 2019 PGA Championship leaderboard quickly.

Also, the model says five other golfers with 2019 PGA Championship odds of 18-1 or longer will make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.

So who will win the 2019 PGA Championship, and which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full 2019 PGA Championship projected leaderboard from the model that nailed the winners of four golf majors.

Tiger Woods 8-1 Dustin Johnson 10-1 Rory McIlroy 12-1 Brooks Koepka 10-1 Rickie Fowler 16-1Jon Rahm 18-1 Justin Rose 18-1 Francesco Molinari 20-1 Bryson DeChambeau 25-1Jason Day 25-1 Xander Schauffele 25-1Tommy Fleetwood 25-1 Jordan Spieth 30-1Tony Finau 30-1 Matt Kuchar 40-1 Patrick Reed 40-1 Hideki Matsuyama 40-1 Patrick Cantlay 40-1Paul Casey 50-1 Phil Mickelson 50-1Adam Scott 50-1 Sergio Garcia 60-1 Webb Simpson 60-1Louis Oosthuizen 60-1Bubba Watson 60-1Henrik Stenson 60-1Marc Leishman 60-1Gary Woodland 60-1

Ian Poulter 60-1

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