2019 PGA Championship odds, picks: Tiger Woods projection from top simulation that called four majors

 cbssports.com  05/12/2019 18:35:00   CBS Sports Staff

For players like Tiger Woods (8-1), Rory McIlroy (12-1), Justin Thomas (16-1), Jason Day (25-1) and defending champion Brooks Koepka (10-1), Thursday's 2019 PGA Championship is all about adding another Wanamaker Trophy to their collection. Woods, in fact, has taken down the PGA Championship five times, the last coming in 2007 after he also won it in 2006. But for players like Rickie Fowler (16-1), this event is about finding the career-defining major victory that has eluded him. Fowler is one of six golfers going off at 16-1 or lower in the latest 2019 PGA Championship odds. He's finished inside the top 12 in six of his last nine major tournaments, but has yet to break through with a title. In order to win it all, Fowler must outlast a highly talented 2019 PGA Championship field that also includes players like Jordan Spieth, who needs a victory at Bethpage Black in order to complete his career grand slam. Whether you're looking over the list of former winners or backing a potential first-timer, you should see the 2019 PGA Championship picks and predictions from the proven golf model at SportsLine.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed four majors entering the weekend and called Tiger Woods' deep run in the last PGA Championship despite being a 25-1 long shot. The model has been spot-on early in the 2018-19 season. It was high on champion Rory McIlroy at the 2019 Players Championship, projecting him as one of the top two contenders from the start. It also correctly predicted Brooks Koepka's (9-1) victory at the CJ Cup. Additionally, it correctly called Bryson DeChambeau's (9-1) seven-shot victory at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. Anyone who has followed the model is way up.

Now with the 2019 PGA Championship field taking shape, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Woods, a four-time champion, reigning Masters winner, and the top Vegas favorite, doesn't even crack the top five.

Woods completed a remarkable comeback with a thrilling victory last month at the Masters. His win at Augusta marked his 15th major title, which now puts him three behind Jack Nicklaus' record of 18. It was his first major title in 11 years and he'll look to capture multiple majors in a single season for the first time since 2006 starting with the PGA Championship 2019.

However, Woods has not played in a PGA Tour event since capturing his fifth green jacket in April. That doesn't bode well for the 43-year-old golfer who underwent spinal fusion surgery two years ago, especially at an extremely challenging course like Bethpage Black. In two major tournaments held at Bethpage, only six players have finished under par. And with no competitive rounds under his belt over the last month, Woods could struggle like he did in 2012 at The Barclays, his last start at Bethpage. Woods shot 5-over in his final round of that tournament, finishing 1-over and 11 shots behind the winner, Nick Watney.

Plus, Woods has never won the Masters and PGA Championship in the same year. SportsLine's model isn't calling for back-to-back major victories and sees far better values in this loaded field than the 8-1 premium he's commanding, lower than the 14-1 he was fetching at the Masters.

Another surprise: Bryson DeChambeau, a 25-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

DeChambeau might not be the household name that some of the other players who will be competing at Bethpage Black are, but the 25-year-old has made plenty of noise this season on the PGA Tour. He earned his fifth career PGA victory earlier this season at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open and also logged top-10 finishes at the QBE Shootout, Sentry Tournament of Champions and Sony Open.

And while consistency has been an issue at times, DeChambeau has all the tools needed to climb the 2019 PGA Championship leaderboard because he can regularly shoot low scores. He ranks third on the PGA Tour with an average of 4.68 birdies per round. He's aided by a 67.50 driving accuracy percentage, which ranks 28th and should help him avoid trouble this week at Bethpage Black.

Also, the model says four other golfers with 2019 PGA Championship odds of 18-1 or longer will make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.

So who will win the 2019 PGA Championship, and which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2019 PGA Championship odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the 2019 PGA Championship projected leaderboard from the model that nailed the winners of four golf majors.
Tiger Woods 8-1 Dustin Johnson 10-1 Rory McIlroy 12-1 Brooks Koepka 10-1 Justin Thomas 16-1 Rickie Fowler 16-1Jon Rahm 18-1 Justin Rose 18-1 Francesco Molinari 20-1 Bryson DeChambeau 25-1Jason Day 25-1 Xander Schauffele 25-1Tommy Fleetwood 25-1 Jordan Spieth 30-1Tony Finau 30-1 Matt Kuchar 40-1 Patrick Reed 40-1 Hideki Matsuyama 40-1 Patrick Cantlay 40-1Paul Casey 50-1 Phil Mickelson 50-1Adam Scott 50-1 Sergio Garcia 60-1 Webb Simpson 60-1Louis Oosthuizen 60-1Bubba Watson 60-1Henrik Stenson 60-1Marc Leishman 60-1Gary Woodland 60-1

Ian Poulter 60-1

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