2019 PGA Championship odds, picks: Tiger Woods projection from advanced simulation that called four majors

 cbssports.com  05/11/2019 15:20:00   CBS Sports Staff

Thursday's 2019 PGA Championship brings another opportunity for the game's top players to etch their names into the history books. Tiger Woods, a four-time PGA Championship winner, is one of four golfers in the 2019 PGA Championship field to have been victorious at the Bethpage Black Course before. He won the 2002 U.S. Open here with a score of 3-under and was the only player to go under par for the entire tournament. Phil Mickelson (even) and Jeff Maggert (plus-two) were the next best scores, but still well behind Woods. His experience and championship pedigree have made Woods the Vegas favorite at 8-1 PGA Championship odds to win it all again this year and take down back-to-back golf majors on the PGA schedule. Past champions Brooks Koepka (10-1), Rory McIlroy (12-1) and Justin Thomas (16-1) are also among the 2019 PGA Championship contenders. Before locking in any 2019 PGA Championship picks of your own or entering a PGA DFS tournament on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings, you should see the predictions from SportsLine's proven golf model.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed four majors entering the weekend and called Tiger Woods' deep run in the last PGA Championship despite being a 25-1 long shot. The model has been spot-on early in the 2018-19 season. It was high on champion Rory McIlroy at the 2019 Players Championship, projecting him as one of the top two contenders from the start. It also correctly predicted Brooks Koepka's (9-1) victory at the CJ Cup. Additionally, it correctly called Bryson DeChambeau's (9-1) seven-shot victory at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. Anyone who has followed the model is way up.

Now with the 2019 PGA Championship field taking shape, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Woods, a four-time champion, reigning Masters winner, and the top Vegas favorite, doesn't even crack the top five.

Woods completed a remarkable comeback with a thrilling victory last month at the Masters. His win at Augusta marked his 15th major title, which now puts him three behind Jack Nicklaus' record of 18. It was his first major title in 11 years and he'll look to capture multiple majors in a single season for the first time since 2006 starting with the PGA Championship 2019.

However, Woods has not played in a PGA Tour event since capturing his fifth green jacket in April. That doesn't bode well for the 43-year-old golfer who underwent spinal fusion surgery two years ago, especially at an extremely challenging course like Bethpage Black. In two major tournaments held at Bethpage, only six players have finished under par. And with no competitive rounds under his belt over the last month, Woods could struggle like he did in 2012 at The Barclays, his last start at Bethpage. Woods shot 5-over in his final round of that tournament, finishing 1-over and 11 shots behind the winner, Nick Watney.

Plus, Woods has never won the Masters and PGA Championship in the same year. SportsLine's model isn't calling for back-to-back major victories and sees far better values in this loaded field than the 8-1 premium he's commanding, lower than the 14-1 he was fetching at the Masters.

Another surprise: Xander Schauffele, a 25-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

Schauffele has an Official World Golf Ranking of No. 9, and the 25-year-old already has an impressive track record in majors. He tied for second at the 2019 Masters at 12-under, one stroke behind Woods. At last year's Open Championship, he fired a six-under, two strokes off Francisco Molinari's field-leading score. Schauffele has also finished sixth and fifth in the last two U.S. Opens. He was in the top 40 at last year's PGA Championship.

Schauffele is already a four-time winner on the PGA Tour after two victories this season. His recent success has vaulted him up to second in the FedEx Cup standings. He's in the top 65 on the PGA Tour in all four major strokes gained categories and is 13th in total strokes gained (1.476). His knack for excelling in majors means he should be squarely on your radar as a player who can climb the 2019 PGA Championship leaderboard quickly at Bethpage Black.

Also, the model says four other golfers with 2019 PGA Championship odds of 18-1 or longer will make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.

So who will win the 2019 PGA Championship, and which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2019 PGA Championship odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the 2019 PGA Championship projected leaderboard from the model that nailed the winners of four golf majors.
Tiger Woods 8-1 Dustin Johnson 10-1 Rory McIlroy 12-1 Brooks Koepka 10-1 Justin Thomas 16-1 Rickie Fowler 16-1Jon Rahm 18-1 Justin Rose 18-1 Francesco Molinari 20-1 Bryson DeChambeau 25-1Jason Day 25-1 Xander Schauffele 25-1Tommy Fleetwood 25-1 Jordan Spieth 30-1Tony Finau 30-1 Matt Kuchar 40-1 Patrick Reed 40-1 Hideki Matsuyama 40-1 Patrick Cantlay 40-1Paul Casey 50-1 Phil Mickelson 50-1Adam Scott 50-1 Sergio Garcia 60-1 Webb Simpson 60-1Louis Oosthuizen 60-1Bubba Watson 60-1Henrik Stenson 60-1Marc Leishman 60-1Gary Woodland 60-1

Ian Poulter 60-1

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